The folly of "off-ramps"

When Ukraine wins the war, Putin will build his own

Timothy Snyder

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Some observers of the Russo-Ukrainian war seem to think that its greatest danger is that Ukraine will win, or win too quickly, and that this will be uncomfortable for Putin, and that we should care.

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This is a deeply perverse way of seeing things.  Putin has chosen to fight a war of aggression and destruction in Ukraine.  Wherever Russia controls Ukrainian territory, Russians commit genocidal crimes against citizens of Ukraine, including mass rape, mass killing, and mass deportation.  A democracy is defending itself against an autocracy, and the fate of democracies hangs in the balance.  The Russian hydrocarbon oligarchy is giving us a foretaste of cataclysm that awaits if we do not free ourselves from oil and gas.  Russia blockades the Black Sea and halts food exports, threatening to spread death by starvation to tens of millions of people this year.  Those are the kinds of things we should be worrying about, not Putin's self-image.

Yet there is an even more basic problem with this reasoning, which arises from a false understanding of how power in Russia works.

The Russian media and political system is designed to keep Putin in power regardless of what happens in the outside world.  Russian politics takes place within a closed information environment which Putin himself designed and which Putin himself runs.  He does not need our help in the real world to craft reassuring fictions for Russians.  He has been doing this for twenty years without our help.

Ukrainians understand this, which is one reason that they become irritated when we suggest that they concede territory or victory to Russia because of a concern about Putin's internal state.  They know that this is not only unjust but pointless.  What matters in Russian politics is not Putin's feelings nor battlefield realities but the ability of the Putin regime to change the story for Russian media consumers.  It is senseless, as the Ukrainians understand, to sentence real people of real territories to suffer and die for the sake of Russian narratives that do not even depend upon the real world.

What happens if Putin decides that he is losing in Ukraine?  He will act to protect himself by declaring victory and changing the subject.  He does not need an off ramp in the real world, because that is not where his power rests.  All he needs to do is change the story in Russia's virtual world, as he has been doing for decades.  This is just a matter of setting the agenda in a meeting.  In virtual reality there is always an escape route, and for this reason Putin cannot be "cornered."  (Neither, for that matter, can the actual Russian army in actual Ukraine.  When Russian units are defeated, they just cross back into Russia).

Putin's power is coterminous with his ability to change the subject on Russian television.  He does this all the time.  Think about how the war began.  Until late February of this year, the entire Russian media was clamoring that an invasion of Ukraine was unthinkable and that all the evidence was just warmongering by the CIA.  Russians believed that, or pretended to.  Then, once Russia did in fact invade Ukraine, war was presented as inevitable and righteous.  Now Russians believe this, or pretend to.  In 2015, when Russia's last invasion of Ukraine failed to meet all of its objectives, the Russian media changed the subject from one day to the next from Ukraine to Syria.  This is simply how Russia is ruled: invasions and storytelling about invasions.  If the invasion doesn't work out, the story changes.

If defeated in reality, Putin will declare victory on television, and Russians will believe him, or pretend that they believe him.  He will find a new subject on which to fasten their attention.  This is the Kremlin's problem, not ours.  These are internal Russian mechanisms in which outside actors are essentially irrelevant.  It makes no sense to create an "off-ramp" in the real world, when all Putin needs is an "off-ramp" in his virtual world.  It will be built by propagandists from pixels, and we are not needed for that.  Indeed, there is something more than a little humiliating in Western leaders offering themselves as unpaid and unneeded interns for Russian television channels.

The odd thing is that Western leaders know all of this, or should.  Given plenty of time to reflect after Russia's last invasion of Ukraine in 2014, we have become aware of the primary role that political fiction plays in Russian life.  Everyone who matters in public discussions ought to be aware that Putin governs in media rather than reality.  Just three months ago, we all just watched as Putin changed the story from "war unthinkable" to "war inevitable."  And yet, for some reason, some Western leaders ignore this basic structural fact of Russian politics when they advocate appeasement.

To be sure, Putin might err, in this war or in some other one.  He might wait too long to declare victory in the virtual world.  In that case he loses power, and someone else takes over the television networks.  We cannot save him from such a misjudgment.  It will happen sooner or later.  It is possible that power in Russia will change hands during this war; we will know that has happened when the Russian media landscape changes.  Regardless of whether Putin falls during this war or later, his power over media will be complete until the moment when it ceases.  There is no interval where our actions in the real world will be decisive.

Now let's think of what we are asking of the Ukrainians when we speak of conceding Ukrainian territory for the sake of giving Putin an "off-ramp."  We are asking the people who are the victims of a genocidal war to comfort the perpetrator.  We are expecting Ukrainians, who know that Russian politics is all about fiction, to make sacrifices in the world where their families and friends live and die.  We are asking Ukrainians to sentence their own people to ethnic cleansing in order to make life slightly easier for Russian television producers whose genocidal hate speech is one cause of the atrocities.

As Ukrainians keep trying to tell us, clichés of "cornering" and "off-ramps" will make the war last longer, by distracting from the simple necessity of Russian defeat.

When we start the story from Putin's psychic needs and run it through our own misunderstanding of Russian politics, we push Ukrainian democracy to the side.  Rather than acting like allied democracies, we behave like amateur therapists for a dictator.  We are no good at that.  We are directing our empathy towards a dictator who will only exploit it to continue a war, and away from a people who must win that war to end it.

Appeasement of Russia distracts us from the people who really are cornered: the Ukrainians.  They are facing extermination as a people, and that is why they fight. President Volodymyr Zelens’kyi actually does need a way to end this war, because he does not govern by fiction, because he is an elected leader, and because he feels responsible for his people.  Unlike Putin, Zelensky cannot simply change the subject.  He has to bring his people along.  At this point, Ukrainians by huge majorities believe that the war has to be won, and are unwilling to concede territory.  Unlike Putin, Zelens’kyi will have to make a case, referring to what is actually happening on the ground.  He therefore really does need help, both to win the war as quickly as possible, and in giving  Ukrainians a sense of a post-war future.

All reasonable people want this war to end.  That means thinking more about the Ukrainian people, and worrying less about problems that Putin does not in fact have.

Canuck 21

May 31

Agree with every word. I would just add the observation that, by introducing appeasement options into the conversation, we also take a considerable - and possibly irrevocable - step towards normalizing and rewarding Russian behaviour. The process is similar to the attempt to "both side" fundamental discussions on such things as democratic norms, climate change, health science or evolution. Each time we make a concession to "the other side" for the sake of making the conversation less absolute, we end up diluting what is objective truth. In the case of Ukraine there is no room for fudging the conversation, lest we loosen our understanding (and our condemnation) of genocidal aggression.

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Laura Donna

May 31

Would you consider un-retiring from diplomacy?

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Canuck 21

May 31

:) I find retirement rather liberating, actually ... But I am doing the odd spot of consulting.

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Danielle (NM)

May 31

As we spend today honoring the sacrifice of those who fought and died for our freedom, let us also pause to honor the Ukrainians who now fight and die for theirs.

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Nancy (South NJ coast)

May 31

The Ukrainian people are fighting for our freedom, too, and the freedom of all the European democracies. The flag of Ukraine flies in my yard today along with our Stars and Stripes.

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Laura Donna

May 31

Right: "When we start the story from Putin's psychic needs and run it through our own misunderstanding of Russian politics, we push Ukrainian democracy to the side. Rather than acting like allied democracies, we behave like amateur therapists for a dictator. We are no good at that."

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Anna Sch.

May 31

Unfortunately this is a similar misconception as the one (especially in Germany), Russia is indispensable for the world order and stability. And this despite the fact, that Russia has been trying to destabilise and interfere in other countries‘ policies.

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Kevin

May 31

It is an existential threat for all of us to support a world where there is no truth, no values, only power and the willingness to use it along the usual variety of supportive lies. The "off ramp" narratives are only mirror images of these lies masquerading as sagacious gravitas. Ukraine must win, not just for its own sake, but for all those who hold essential such things as truth and basic human decency. A cynical "realism" is the enemy of all of us.

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G Sazima

May 31

Thanks for this- listening to John Mearsheimer hector people for not kissing Putin’s um, ring is tedious and unhelpful.

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Bill Engeman

May 31

We could predict his response and act irresponsibly because of our prediction. Or, we could forthrightly aid in his defeat, acting responsibly. Say little. Act responsibly. Tim is right as usual.

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Leanna Stoufer

May 31

"We are asking the people who are the victims of a genocidal war to comfort the perpetrator. We are expecting Ukrainians, who know that Russian politics is all about fiction, to make sacrifices in the world where their families and friends live and die."

Thank you for posting this! I was on my soapbox yesterday while meeting with one of my circles, and I was sharing how ridiculous it is to expect Ukraine to cede territory for any reason really. It is not as though taking more land will stop Putin (it certainly didn't stop with Crimea). It is also not as though giving up land would protect the people who live there. Instead, they would likely be annihilated in the most brutal ways possible.

Appeasement seems like such a bad idea when dealing with someone who has insatiable greed for power. And blaming the victim, blaming Ukraine for the Russian regime's actions, is unconscionable. Again, thank you for sharing your astute observations.

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Edeere

May 31

Thank you Professor. The West seems so off the mark to be trying to push Ukraine to compromise in an effort to appease Putin. After Biden’s admin indicated that the US would be with UKR till this was won with the goal to weaken RU so it would not do this again - I had thought we turned the corner on talk of appeasement . Is the new focus on “off ramps” caused by the sea blockade + those EU countries not willing to wean off RU energy?

Agree 100% that there can be no appeasement here. The West needs to be all in to support UKR. Any appeasement or ceding UKR territory to RU would be a victory for RU and would encourage Putin to do this once again.

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teresafbrooks

May 31

Thank you. And a complete sidebar: I feel there’s a deep-seated link between the unwillingness, inability of the police in Uvalde TX to take steps to save children from a single, mad destructor, and the inability, unwillingness of democratic states (apart from the NATO alliance), afraid of Putin's nuclear sabre ratting, to provide on-the-ground assistance or a no-fly zone to save Ukraine from a sole destructor, Russia. Neither assault weapons in the hands of civilians nor nuclear weapons are good for anything but wreaking death -- or creating paralyzing stand-offs. And the madmen know it.

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Bohdan Vitvitsky

May 31

Exactly right. And, as Kasparov has suggested, there is another angle, as he suggests in the below thread:

I don't think Scholz, Macron, and Draghi want Putin to win, not exactly. But they are afraid of Ukraine winning and the world changing, of becoming less relevant. A new European security structure won't see them as leaders after their appeasement.

7:02 PM · May 29, 2022·TweetDeck

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Garry Kasparov

@Kasparov63

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5h

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@Kasparov63

The complacent Western European old guard want to keep having it both ways. They claim the moral high ground & posture about human rights while funding Putin's police state and the war machine that is now slaughtering Ukrainians.

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Garry Kasparov

@Kasparov63

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5h

Now they have to pick a side. They pretend they can be peacemakers with evil and compromisers with war criminals. No. There is honor only in helping the Ukrainians who are fighting for them, no honor in helping bury them later.

Expand full comment

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Deborah Sheaf

May 31

I can’t see this thread. Pity.

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Bohdan Vitvitsky

May 31

I have separately sent it to Ms. Sheaf

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Nancy (South NJ coast)

May 31

"Everyone who matters in public discussions ought to be aware that Putin governs in media rather than reality. . . . And yet, for some reason, some Western leaders ignore this basic structural fact of Russian politics when they advocate appeasement." Someone should have awakened the nonagenarian Henry Kissinger from his comfortable snooze in the sunshine of the realpolitik mind. Clearly he is unaware that the "real" is precisely what is now absent in Russian affairs. The other, younger appeasers, as Prof. Snyder writes, ought to know better. Since they don't, I hope this Thinking About post is the precursor of a longer essay for a widely read news site or magazine. Ukraine must win this war with its sovereignty and territorial integrity intact, and the EU and NATO must support the Ukrainians until victory is won.

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jlsalvignol

May 31

Tout ceci fait penser à la fin du pouvoir du Chancelier Hitler, avec ses armes magiques qui devaient changer le sort de la guerre. L’adhésion des peuples à ces fictions est profondément troublante.

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Leanna Stoufer

May 31

C'est tellement vrai.

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Marlene Lerner-Bigley (CA)

May 31

It is a possible fallacy that Putin has any type of cancer and even if he does succumb to some illness, there are other actors waiting in the wings. He perpetuates fear and he loves it, wallows in it. He taught his boys in our country very well. The majority of sane people in the US may have to very well take up arms against our own enemy, the Pro-Rape and Open-Carry party. Like the very brave Ukrainians, our arms should be locked together to defeat the enemies from within by demanding equality and justice for all.

I try and help the Ukrainians with sending money to Razom and Jose André’s group as much as I can, while giving to the candidates who can change our lives.

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Ray Anne

May 31

We should fight again Putin's Big Lie the way we should fight against Trump's Big Lie.

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Laura I Troutman

May 31

Thanks for laying the truth on the line.

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founding

Mark Huber, Helena, MT

Jun 1

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edited Jun 1

I want to believe that our senior decision makers in the West Wing, the State Department, the Intelligence Services and Defense Department have the same clear eyed view articulated by Professor Snyder as to why off ramps will not work with Putin.

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Ken Z

May 31

Thanks for a very illuminating and thought provoking article. It is disturbing to me, that there seems to be a growing “virtual world” in the United States, an example of which is the voter fraud in 2020, but seems to slowing infiltrating many other areas of American life.

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Eugene L.

May 31

Agree with the basic premise but the concept of an “off-ramp”, as I understand it, is premised not so much on keeping Putin happy or in power, but rather, on the possibility that a losing effort on the ground may compel him to consider nuclear options. Would be interested in your thoughts on this perspective.

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Mary Ellen Spicuzza

Writes Mary Ellen's Newsletter

Jun 1

Timothy Snyder is a voice of reason (as usual and thank goodness). I regained some sanity after reading this today.

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Linda MacDonald

Jun 1

There should be no plan to reward Putin's invasion. I was able to listen to the Davos panel you were part of via Youtube and the entire discussion was excellent. My concern is that democracies have a weakened attention span after all these years of rushing around following the bouncing ball of electronic media. There is a tendency after 90 plus days to say internally, let's get this thing over with and get on to the next thing! That of course is just what Putin wants. He is focused on destruction and getting what he wants even it is only rubble. The Russians are committing horrendous crimes against the Ukrainians and the entire world. That Ukraine is still waiting for the weapons it needs makes my blood run cold. I fear there is talk in back rooms as folks try to find some way to save face for themselves if they decide to cave to Putin. Ukraine is doing the really heavy lifting for democracy right now. Nato should be ashamed really not coming up with some creative ways to bring the war's military costs directly to the Russian army. The German Chancellor keeps saying publicly that Ukraine must win. But winning means more effort on the part of ALL of the democratic partners and less pussy footing with the tyrant in charge in Russia.

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Deborah Sheaf

May 31

I would like to feel sorry for the Russian people, even the soldiers. They’re the ones sacrificing their lives for this delusion. I would like to say (and mean it) that the Russian people deserve better than this. And from time to time I do. I feel sad for them. But I’m saving the bulk of my grief and compassion for Ukraine, her people, her animals, her resources, her history and her land. I feel almost physical pain at the prospect of this country being overrun by this horror. We can’t let it happen. Germany needs to overcome its guilt about the past, which the Kremlin is manipulating, and send the heavy weaponry. We need to throw our collective weight together and give the Kremlin the metaphorical finger.

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Lyn Anne Riddett

May 31

Thank you once again for your analysis. It is my impresssion formed by reading commentary here in Australia, that there are people looking for "an off-ramp:, or a so-called negotiated "peace", because, deeply troubled by what is happening in Ukraine, they simply want it to stop so they can relax.

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Cynthia Kagan

May 31

Thank you Timothy Snyder, for helping us to keep our heads on straight!

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Deborah Sheaf

May 31

Actually, I’ve rethought my earlier post and wish to scrub from it any expression of sympathy for Russian troops. After the atrocities they’ve committed, they’ve forfeited any right to sympathy. I worry that in Kherson and Mariupol where senior Russian officials - how dare they set foot there! - are spouting on about their plans for those territories, the population will feel under the boot. It wouldn’t take too long for them to forget what life was like before and start to feel brainwashed. The whole situation is so horrible.

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janet sanders

May 31

YES! Thank you for articulating it so accurately. May I add that your words resonate here at home as well.

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